West Ham's latest acquisition, subject to work permit approval, is Enner Valencia the Ecuadorian forward who scored three goals in the World Cup this Summer. The fee is apparently around £10m rising to £14m based on appearnces, clauses etc. Here's the reasons I think it's a mistake at the price quoted.
- Short-term form bias. Valencia is clearly in the best form of his young life. The last six months have been incredible for him. But though it doesn't hurt his prospects, it doesn't necessarily follow that the rest of his career will be one long upwards curve. Regression to the mean is much more likely. Obviously you'd rather buy a player in form than out of it, but you pay a lot more for that privilege, and it's simply not a good enough indicator of future achievement.
- World Cup bias. The World Cup is notoriously bad for scouting players, simply because it can give off so many false positives. Valencia's brace against Honduras adds immensely to his reputation, but there are so many imponderables present in these International matches to really make a clear assessment. Logic dictates that while World cups can be useful for simply measuring things like effort, work-rate and pace, they are just not as useful for judging other aspects of performance like technique in tight situations, or under physical pressure, or at a different pace of play. Particularly in the heat of Brazil.
- The Mexican League. There have been some fantastic Mexican players in recent years - Guillermo Franco was one magician I saw first-hand in his declining years. But the record of measuring performance in the Mexican league in terms of the sort of talent it can deliver to Europe is very difficult to assess. Valencia's scoring record in the Mexican league (26 goals since the turn of the year) - what does it mean? How do we assess it? Maybe Allardyce and his scouts are Mexican league experts, but I have to reasonably doubt it. South America to the English leagues has very rarely been a smooth cultural journey, it seems to me, though much of that evidence is anecdotal. Admitting that we just don't know how a player like that would make the jump is fair.
- Buying at the top of a player's value. I think it's a fair assessment that Valencia will almost certainly never ever be worth more than he is right now.
- Valencia may not even be a striker. He wasn't considered one until this year. This could have both good and bad implications. It may mean he simply isn't naturally suited to the role, or it could mean that the new role has been the making of him. But I think it's something of a rarity for a winger/midfielder to suddenly become an effective striker. It's suspicious at face value.
- There's also the usual caveat that if this well known player, at the height of notoriety after the World Cup, was really worth the sort of figure West Ham have paid, then he'd be good enough for teams a lot better than West Ham. The price says that he really is a top player, but the reality is that he seems to have come to West Ham without much of a fight, with little genuine rumour of anyone else being interested. Again, this adds to my suspicion.
- One major fact - he was bought by Pacheco for less than £3m in January. Either they bought an absolutely outstanding player in what was one of the buys of the century, or he is overvalued at £14m.
- Then there's the Allardyce factor. A series of pacy, physically slight forwards have tried and failed at West Ham under his tenure - Baldock, Maynard, Vaz Te, Maiga, Petric, Borriello. Whether Valencia can break through seems unlikely, particularly as Allardyce has always favoured 4-5-1 and with his first choice very firmly Andy Carroll. And Valencia didn't play in a 4-5-1 at the World Cup - Ecuador played 4-4-2 in each match. My guess is that Allardyce will try to shoehorn Valencia in playing a wide role, and if this doesn't work Valencia may simply find himself festering on the bench.
The one factor that can positively affect all of this is if Valencia has been assessed, under some secret analysis that West Ham are privy to, to be a much much better player than anyone thinks. But West Ham's record of uncovering major untapped talent under the current regime has not even been patchy - it's been poor.
All of this is not to say that Valencia will be poor for West Ham - he may be great for the club. And it also doesn't mean that there isn't a price where a gamble on the player would have been a very worthwhile option. And as always, I'm ready to be proven wrong.
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